Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 21.156402 23.102959 25.268704 27.882084 30.985102 34.598140 39.194906
2024-12-29 18.266961 20.804926 23.848489 27.857110 33.146796 40.131409 50.532744
2025-01-05 16.313240 19.143113 22.727741 27.780647 35.061533 45.842560 64.714155
2025-01-12 14.714792 17.632680 21.476560 27.177509 35.985994 50.375194 79.806528
2025-01-19 14.050690 17.211482 21.553863 28.369776 39.803270 60.974914 115.382712
2025-01-26 13.114046 16.293064 20.781969 28.103590 41.125978 67.686726 151.546675
2025-02-02 12.430969 15.646658 20.304829 28.186918 43.049886 76.672597 214.476064
2025-02-09 11.891852 15.147044 19.975098 28.434572 45.335519 88.035244 335.514369
2025-02-16 11.387836 14.649954 19.585796 28.499155 47.257783 100.025055 579.406261
2025-02-23 10.864031 14.080170 19.020085 28.149900 48.173697 109.893881 1082.507270
2025-03-02 10.471412 13.679063 18.686066 28.177264 49.985495 125.082813 4272.771041
2025-03-09 10.075752 13.245496 18.257881 27.957976 51.137378 139.406847 NaN
2025-03-16 9.693724 12.816242 17.812570 27.668243 52.112308 155.266546 NaN
2025-03-23 9.352590 12.432217 17.415590 27.428770 53.196077 174.552875 NaN
2025-03-30 9.051932 12.095580 17.074820 27.263221 54.477385 199.079094 NaN
2025-04-06 8.707069 11.670383 16.549419 26.641159 54.213832 212.707258 NaN
2025-04-13 8.641296 11.691525 16.814374 27.776184 60.012235 308.129432 NaN
2025-04-20 8.387782 11.391482 16.476918 27.511957 61.000948 359.478838 NaN
2025-04-27 8.196540 11.185003 16.296542 27.589189 63.310754 460.320282 NaN
2025-05-04 8.037730 11.024513 16.189651 27.826659 66.397935 645.316495 NaN
2025-05-11 7.867647 10.836941 16.018959 27.888338 68.858816 922.472550 NaN
2025-05-18 7.661915 10.580412 15.701931 27.551293 69.500738 1194.974364 NaN
2025-05-25 7.509000 10.407731 15.535748 27.577576 71.868591 2029.663005 NaN